Ecuador's Grid Could Buckle by October — What Cuenca Expats Should Know
Cuenca Expat Staff
If you lived through Ecuador's blackouts in late 2024, you know the drill — cold showers, dead phones, and restaurants lit by candles. Here's a heads-up: it could happen again.
Ecuador's national grid operator Cenace projects an 18% probability of blackouts during the upcoming dry season, from October 2026 through March 2027. The trigger? Ecuador lost access to Colombian electricity.
What Happened
Colombia suspended energy sales to Ecuador on January 22, 2026, cutting off up to 450 megawatts of capacity — roughly 10% of Ecuador's average demand. That gap has to be filled by domestic generation, and Ecuador's biggest power plant isn't cooperating.
The Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant — Ecuador's largest — had 33 operational shutdowns in 2025 due to sediment-clogged water. Heavy rains send mud into the river, forcing the turbines to stop. It happened at least once every month from April onward.
What It Means for Cuenca
Cuenca gets its power from the national grid. If the grid can't meet demand during the October–March dry season, rolling blackouts return for everyone — including us.
The government is renting six diesel thermal plants as backup, but diesel generation is the most expensive option on the table. Cenace estimates blackouts could cost $41 million in a normal scenario, up to $823 million in an extreme drought.
What You Can Do Now
- Invest in a UPS or backup battery for your router and phone — the small ones cost $30-50 on Mercado Libre
- Stock your freezer strategically — a full freezer stays cold longer during outages
- Know your building's water situation — many Cuenca apartments rely on electric pumps for upper-floor water pressure
- Keep flashlights and a portable phone charger handy
October is five months away, and 18% is a probability, not a certainty. But if 2024 taught us anything, it's that Ecuador's grid has thin margins — and it's better to prepare before the lights go out than after.
Source: Primicias, citing Cenace data
