Blackout Risk Is Back on the Table: Energy Expert Warns of Generation Deficit
Cuenca Expat Staff
What's Happening
Energy sector expert Marco Acuña warned on April 8 (source) that Ecuador has registered an electrical generation deficit that could lead to power cuts during peak consumption hours.
The government's Energy Minister Inés Manzano disagrees, stating that Ecuador will not face blackouts in the short term.
Someone is wrong. Given what happened in 2024, it's worth paying attention to both sides.
Why the Risk Is Real
Three things are converging:
- Colombia cut off energy sales to Ecuador as part of the ongoing trade war. Ecuador had been importing Colombian electricity as a backstop during peak demand periods. That backstop is gone
- Coca Codo Sinclair — Ecuador's largest power plant — continues to operate at less than 50% of its 1,500 MW capacity due to equipment fissures and river erosion (and is being formally accepted by the government this week despite those problems)
- The 2024 blackout crisis was caused by the exact same combination: drought reducing hydroelectric output plus insufficient generation capacity. If dry conditions return in the second half of 2026, the same scenario could repeat
The Government's Position
Minister Manzano says the generation mix is sufficient and that new thermal backup capacity has been added since 2024. The government is also counting on continued rainfall to maintain hydroelectric reservoir levels.
What This Means for You in Cuenca
- No immediate blackouts expected. The current rainy season is helping reservoir levels, and Cuenca's rivers are flowing well
- The risk is later this year. If the dry season (typically July-November) is severe, and Colombia's energy cutoff is still in effect, peak-hour power cuts become possible
- Keep your emergency supplies ready. Flashlights, charged power banks, a battery-powered radio. If you lived through the 2024 blackouts, you know the drill
- Solar panels and battery backups are increasingly popular among expats in Cuenca for exactly this reason. If you've been considering it, the math keeps getting better
- The tranvía runs on electricity too. During the 2024 crisis, service was reduced. Keep that in mind for planning
We'll keep tracking reservoir levels and energy generation data. For now, enjoy the rain.
Sources: Prensa Latina, Primicias
